Climate Trends and Impacts on Health

Resources for research on climate trends, and impacts on health, globally and in Bangladesh
 

Global Temperature Trends


The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) monitors weather from some 10,000 land stations, 7,300 ships, 3,000 aircraft, 700 Argo floats, and 15 satellites. The main datasets are made from these WMO data: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS); NOAA Climatic Research Unit (HadCRU) at Univ of East Anglia with UK Met Office Hadley Centre; Univ of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) for tropospheric data.

Reference periods differ: GISS uses 1951-1980; HadCRU uses 1961-1990; NOAA NCDC uses whole 20th century.
GISS data available from Global Master Directory (http://gcmd.nasa.gov). NOAA datasets from National Climatic Data Center (www..ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/).

Over period since 1880, temperature has risen 1.2oC.

 

 

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/ globe/land_ocean/1/8/1880-2019? trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1880&endtrendyear=2019

 

Global Trends in Carbon Dioxide Levels in the Atmosphere

These measurements were started in 1959 by C. David Keeling on the Hawaiian island of Mauna Loa, far from any industrial CO2 pollution. Now Scripps Institution of Oceanography and NOAA/ESRL carry out independent monitoring also.

Annual growth rates have been steadily rising from 0.94 ppm in 1959 doubling to 2.86 in 2018, with peaks in 2015 & 16.

 

 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

 

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Carbon dioxide emissions, primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels, have risen dramatically since the start of the industrial revolution. Most of the world’s greenhouse gas  emissions come from a relatively small number of countries. China, the United States, and the nations that make up the European Union are the three largest emitters on an absolute basis. Per capita greenhouse gas emissions are highest in the United States and Russia.
(Source: C2ES.ORG: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions)

 

 

SOURCE

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2017)

 

World Energy Outlook  (International Energy Agency, 2016).

World Bank: Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2019) - "CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions'

 

Emissions by sector

The data below is based on UN reported figures, sourced from the EDGAR database. Sources define sectoral emissions groupings in the following way8:
Energy (energy, manufacturing and construction industries and fugitive emissions): emissions are inclusive of public heat and electricity production; other energy industries; fugitive emissions from solid fuels, oil and gas, manufacturing industries and construction.
Transport: domestic aviation, road transportation, rail transportation, domestic navigation, other transportation.
International bunkers: international aviation; international navigation/shipping.
Residential, commercial, institutional and AFF: Residential and other sectors.
Industry (industrial processes and product use): production of minerals, chemicals, metals, pulp/paper/food/drink, halocarbons, refrigeration and air conditioning; aerosols and solvents; semiconductor/electronics manufacture; electrical equipment.
Waste: solid waste disposal; wastewater handling; waste incineration; other waste handling.
Agriculture: methane and nitrous oxide emissions from enteric fermentation; manure management; rice cultivation; synthetic fertilizers; manure applied to soils; manure left on pasture; crop residues; burning crop residues, savanna and cultivation of organic soils.
Land use: emissions from the net conversion of forest; cropland; grassland and burning biomass for agriculture or other uses.
Other sources: fossil fuel fires; indirect nitrous oxide from non-agricultural NOx and ammonia; other anthropogenic sources.

 

 

Future Emission Scenarios

Here, five scenarios are shown:
No climate policies: projected future emissions if no climate policies were implemented; this would result in an estimated 4.1-4.8°C warming by 2100 (relative to pre-industrial temperatures)
Current climate policies: projected warming of 3.1-3.7°C by 2100 based on current implemented climate policies
National pledges: if all countries achieve their current targets/pledges set within the Paris climate agreement, it’s estimated average warming by 2100 will be 2.6-3.2°C. This will go well beyond the overall target of the Paris Agreement to keep warming “well below 2°C”.
2°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 2°C by 2100. This would require a significant increase in ambition of the current pledges within the Paris Agreement.
1.5°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 1.5°C by 2100. However, all would require a very urgent and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emission-scenarios

 

Global Sea Level
Latest measurement: May 2019: 94 (+ 4) mm

This is the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) from the Integrated Multi-Mission Ocean Altimeter Data for Climate Research. The GMSL is a time series of globally averaged Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA) from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2 and Jason-3.

The Bay of Bengal is among the slowest rising sea level regions (~2-2.5 mm/year).  But recent evidence suggests these rates are accelerating as Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting faster than earlier models predicted.

Satellite Data: 1993-Present. Rate of change up to 3.3 mm/year

Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

 

 

 

For over 20 years, satellite altimeters have measured the sea surface height of our ever-changing oceans. This image shows the 20 year trends of rising seas across the globe from 1993 to 2016. The grids and figures were produced at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California Institute of Technology, under the NASA MEaSUREs program (version JPL 1603).

Arctic Sea Ice Trends

The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent on September 18, 2019, along with 2007 and 2016—the years tied for second lowest minimum—and the record minimum for 2012.

2019 is shown in blue, 2016 in light brown, 2012 in dotted pink, and 2007 in dark brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data.

On September 18, 2019, sea ice extent dropped to 4.15 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles), effectively tied for the second lowest minimum in the satellite record along with 2007 and 2016. This appears to be the lowest extent of the year. In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will begin increasing through autumn and winter.   The 13 lowest extents in the satellite era have all occurred in the last 13 years.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

Antarctic sea ice extent reached 12.2 million km2 on average in June 2019, which is 1.4 million km2 (or 10%) below the 1981-2010 average for June. This was the lowest sea ice extent recorded in June since the beginning of our record in 1979.

 

 

Left: Average Antarctic sea ice cover for June 2019. The thick orange line denotes the climatological ice edge for June for the period 1981-2010. Right: Antarctic sea ice cover anomalies for June 2019 relative to the June average for the period 1981-2010.

 

 

https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-june-2019